Opening Statement
I want to start by acknowledging that I’m speaking from a position that most of you aren’t in. I’m retired, and I don’t need show business to survive anymore. That gives me the ability to take a longer more objective view of an industry that has been very good to me.
Right now, in the U.S. the film industry is underperforming. We’re seeing fewer greenlights, compressed schedules, reduced budgets, and long stretches of unemployment for film workers here at home.
The temptation is to look for a single cause. To blame streaming, studios, unions, audiences, or now, Artificial Intelligence. But the truth is more complicated. The industry didn’t break overnight, and it wasn’t broken by one thing.
AI didn’t create the instability—but it arrived at a moment when the business model was already fragile. And like every powerful tool before it, AI doesn’t make decisions. People do. What AI does is accelerate the consequences of those decisions.
Right now, AI is being used to reduce time, cost, and headcount—especially in early development, post-production, and entry-level roles. That matters, because this industry has always relied on progression and mentorship. When those rungs disappear, the whole ladder weakens.
At the same time, it’s important to say this clearly: AI does not replace taste, judgment, leadership, or human collaboration. It generates options—but humans still decide what matters. The danger isn’t AI itself. The danger is becoming invisible while it’s adopted around you.
From a long view, filmmaking has always been cyclical. Sound, television, digital, streaming—every shift felt existential at the time. Careers were disrupted. Some paths vanished. New ones emerged. What’s different now is speed, and how many layers are changing at once.
So, the real question isn’t whether the industry will recover. It will. The question is: recover into what—and who will be ready when it does?
That brings us to the hardest part of this conversation. If the old paths are unreliable, what are we willing to change in order to stay viable? How far are we willing to pivot—not permanently, but long enough to survive and stay sharp?
This isn’t about lowering standards or abandoning craft. It’s about widening survival paths. About adapting where tools assist us, resisting where they exploit us, and leading where human judgment still matters most.
I don’t want this to be a conversation about panic or nostalgia. I want it to be about readiness. Staying curious. Staying connected. Staying capable. Because when things do improve—and they will—the industry won’t reward those who waited for the past to return. It will reward those who remained engaged while it changed.
1. Frame the Moment
“If the industry feels smaller, slower, and more cautious, that’s not your imagination.”
“This isn’t about one villain. It’s about a system that changed faster than its business model.”
“If we’re honest, some of what we’re mourning may not have been viable long-term.”
“Regulation will lag innovation — that’s always been true.”
2. Why is our Industry Underperforming
3. Why?
A. Structural Shifts
B. Risk Aversion
C. Labor & Cost Reality
D. Audience Fragmentation
4. What Can We Actually Control?
“If the old path is unreliable, what are we willing to change in order to stay viable?”
1. Creative Flexibility
2. Professional Repositioning
3. Psychological Resilience
5. How Far Are You Willing to Go?
“This isn’t about lowering standards. It’s about widening survival paths.”
6. The Hope
“The industry may not come back the same—but it will come back.”
7. A Call to Readiness!
“Stay sharp. Stay connected. Stay curious. And don’t confuse a quiet season with a finished career.”
You’re right — leaving AI out would make the conversation feel incomplete and a little dishonest. The key is to address it clearly, calmly, and without sensationalism, because AI is both a disruptor and a mirror reflecting deeper industry problems.
Here’s how to integrate AI into your discussion in a way that elevates it, rather than derailing it.
Where AI Fits in this Discussion
AI is not the sole cause of the industry’s underperformance — but it accelerates and exposes existing weaknesses.
“AI didn’t break the industry. It arrived while the industry was already unstable.”
1. What AI Is Doing Right Now
AI primarily reduces time and headcount, and as of now not creativity.
2. What AI Is Really Threatening
This is where people get uncomfortable.
AI threatens:
This matters because:
The industry was built on mentorship and progression — AI flattens that structure.
3. The Economic Truth No One Likes to Say Out Loud
Studios are under pressure to:
AI is attractive not because it’s better, but because it’s:
“AI doesn’t need to be brilliant to be adopted — it just needs to be cheaper than us.”
4. What AI Can’t Replace Yet
AI struggles with:
“AI can generate options. Humans still decide what matters.”
5. The Ethical & Labor Dimension
Acknowledge:
6. The Pivot
This is the moment to integrate AI into your earlier pivot theme.
“The danger isn’t AI. The danger is becoming invisible while it’s adopted around you.”
7. Going Forward from Here
1. Resist Where It Exploits
2. Adapt Where It Assists
3. Lead Where It Replaces
8. Closing Thought on AI
“Every technological shift in filmmaking has reduced some jobs and created others. The difference this time is speed. The question isn’t whether AI will change the industry — it already has. The question is whether we’re shaping that change or reacting to it.”
Tough questions I can ask.