As the new year begins, it’s hard to say whether conditions in the motion picture industry will improve or continue to tighten. Opinions vary widely, and the truth likely sits somewhere in between. What is clear is that multiple forces—economic, technological, and global—are reshaping how and where films are made.
Production has long followed financial incentives. Studios and producers go where costs are lower, incentives are stronger, and skilled crews are available. Over the years, international film hubs have developed excellent local talent, often trained alongside American crews when productions traveled abroad. From a business standpoint, it makes sense to hire capable local workers and avoid the added expense of travel, housing, and benefits. It’s difficult to fault producers for making rational economic decisions, even if the result is fewer opportunities at home. In the near term, it seems unlikely that large-scale production will return to the U.S. in meaningful numbers.
For younger filmmakers looking for adventure, there are opportunities overseas—especially for those willing to adapt, travel, and learn new cultural and professional norms. When I came out of film school in the late ’70s, the only real place to make the movies I wanted to work on was Los Angeles. It was a closed company town. Unions were hard to get into, seniority ruled everything, and new faces were not welcomed. If you were a woman, gay, or a person of color, the odds were stacked even higher. None of this is new. The industry has always been difficult to break into and even harder to stay in.
For those more established, particularly workers rooted in traditional production centers, the outlook is understandably more uncertain. This industry has never been easy, and safety nets are limited. Still, film people are problem solvers by nature, and adaptability has always been part of survival.
Adding to these long-standing pressures is artificial intelligence. AI is already transforming areas like advertising, pre-production, and post-production. Commercials—short, concept-driven, and message-focused—are especially vulnerable, as AI can now deliver impressive results at a fraction of the cost. This shift will most likely threaten advertising agencies while empowering smaller companies that previously couldn’t afford high-end creative work.
In pre-production, AI tools are rapidly changing storyboarding, previsualization, and concept design. Tasks that once required large teams can now be accomplished quickly with fewer people. Post-production is seeing similar changes, from rough cuts and sound cleanup to music creation and color correction. These tools are scalable, accessible, and increasingly powerful.
Yet not everything is equally threatened. Live performance—concerts, theater, and events centered on real people in shared spaces—may grow in value as audiences seek authentic human experiences. Likewise, hands-on crafts within film production—set construction, lighting, camera operation, and practical effects—remain essential as long as physical production exists.
AI is not just another incremental technology. Its impact is broad, fast, and difficult to predict. Like past revolutions, it will force reinvention. The challenge ahead is not to resist change outright, but to stay curious, creative, and open to new paths forward—while holding onto the human elements that make storytelling meaningful and authentic.